2019 could be a boring year. All the steam was built up in 2018 and now everyone is looking for the fuel to the fire to keep this engine going. It’s like being on a train going uphill in some beautiful mountains and the conductor has to be careful with the coal he has left to throw in the fire so we don’t slip backwards.
The Fed is trying to make the right decisions about interest rates, which could even include a slowing of rate increases, in order to make sure the economy heads into a controlled direction. We’re all worried about the stock market, trade with China, declining monthly employment numbers and wages. The country is at full employment, so innovation is the only clear direction in order to create something new and allow for a safety valve when some sectors falter. GDP is unlikely to start growing at a faster pace than it did in the middle part of 2018. Our housing markets are slowing down and the older range of millennials are starting to consider renting in co-living spaces rather than going into home ownership.
The “big news” stories in 2019 will likely have negative tones prompting worry or fear, which affects consumer sentiment. So I think 2019 is going to be boring because we will have to pay very little attention to the bad news and just stick to our own plans for getting things done. There’s still a lot of good business each of us can get involved in, but it’s going to take discipline and good budgeting to make it thorough what comes next in 2020. A pricing correction is fairly inevitable and then opportunities could be prevalent again.
The good news is that investors really don’t seem to be panicked about a recession yet, and until cap rates start increasing there isn’t much on the horizon that says there will be an abrupt slowdown. Yes there is great “risk” for a recession but no major signs that there “is” a recession in the near term.
2019 is a boring planning year where we gather the last acorns that fall off the tree and save them for a slower season. As well as a slight chance that the season never slows to a halt and we all have extra acorns. Slow and steady is a good course to be on.
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