Why you Should See the Positives in this Recovery
Job growth is trending up, even if it’s slower than expected, and historically anytime we saw 200-300k monthly job gains plus a drop in unemployment percentage we felt good about the numbers. Let’s keep that perspective today as well and not be muddied by news about pandemics and elections. For the last 5 months, the Employment Trends Index has been increasing, per the Conference Board economic indicators.
Consumer confidence is also rising in both national indicators and premier university surveys. The consumer remains strong throughout the last 8 months. That said, the root cause of any drop in demand is due to regulatory restrictions on going out in public. Even with those restrictions, people found ways to buy online and go shopping during certain hours in order to buy goods for their homes.
Local Real Estate Supply and Demand
Locally, in Tampa Bay, it’s a continued renaissance with demand and activity at peak levels with no signs of receding in the short term. Housing demand is strong in both new home sales and also multi-family, with sales volume and pricing both increasing. The most active markets in Central and West Florida are Lakeland and Lakewood Ranch.
People from outside the state are moving to Florida quicker than before, and Florida residents are also packing up and moving within the state to relocate to some of these new & attractive master-planned communities. Also, now with homeschooling and access to online classes, it’s shifting the prior need to move to a certain school district and making it so that now you can live wherever you want, and not be tied to a school district. Oh yeah, and it’s hard not to mention the interest rate environment, but that’s been covered many times.
Our business-friendly climate and tax benefits have always been an attractor for business owners and affluent residents from major metropolitan areas, and now add to that our nature views and active lifestyles, and this surge should continue. In Florida, if you account for the reopening after the pandemic and you account for election year jitters, you can now go back to experiencing normal seasonal assessments and trends in our economy.
What are they all chasing down here? Well, it’s quite possibly the 45% growth that the Tampa MSA is projected to see in population over the next 20 years. That’s serious fuel to buying fires. Since 2018, our local metro area ranks 5th in the nation for net migration with 115 people moving here per day, and Hillsborough County is getting 40 of those per day. That’s a lot of new friends to make!
Speaking of surges in demand, the central Florida industrial market has been on fire since May/June 2020 with attention on the big box distribution buildings along the I-4 Corridor. This trend started a few years ago when corporate America took notice of our demographics growing and changing to a more populous state. Now that a pandemic has accelerated e-commerce demand and more rural living, that trend has only sped up locally bringing even more retailers and shippers to our area.
All in all, it’s shaping up to be a very active and busy 4th quarter in Florida if you’re in the real estate or consumer-facing industries with pent-up demand ready to spend from the sidelines.
Call Fortress CRE, so we can talk expert advice on where your real estate strategy should be focused in West Central Florida. Fortress Commercial Real Estate (CRE) adds value to business owners looking to grow through their real estate, office and building needs.