What to know about a coming slowdown…and I didn’t say it’s here already. You’ve got plenty of time to prepare.
A recession usually clings to one industry, such as oil, housing or political turmoil. Florida and Tampa Bay saw that locally in the last recession and we were hugely affected by it, due being a real estate centric community. Now that our region is more diverse and few of the looming concerns affect us as a large percentage of our local economic drivers, there is good reason to believe the next recession will not hurt Tampa Bay as bad as some feel it might.
The job market is still steady and seems to defy expectations of softening even though hiring slowed nationally, and that’s expected after 11 straight years of expansion. Even wage growth has been a struggle back and forth. Consumers have been keeping this expansion going and it will be very telling to see what happens with retail sales this holiday season, which is typically a time to splurge and spend.
If the consumer doesn’t continue to bail us out with spending, then Government could and might consider spurring demand through tax cuts and other measures, even including increased infrastructure spending.
If you want to know where to look for the next recession and how to prepare then read and watch the following thought leaders. They talk about a variety of topics, including this list of global areas of concern to pay attention to:
- Global Manufacturing Slowdown
- Trade Wars and Emergence of China
- Low US Inflation
- Slip in Consumer Demand
- Overheated Pricing with Possible Corrections Coming
- Coworking Business Model and Effects on CRE
- US Central Bank Monetary Policy
- Upcoming US Election Year
A great quote from this article reads as, “Sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain,” the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said in its post-meeting statement. Fed officials “will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion,” according to the statement. Officials said the job market is “strong,” with “solid” job gains.
This article shows that retail sales are strong, pointing to why Florida is doing well amid national concerns. Consumer confidence is at a 19 year high though, so it’s bound to slow down, but then even remain at a good above average level. Tariffs and Fed rate cuts could cause worry among consumers though. The biggest risk to a global recession is a manufacturing slowdown in industrial production.
Have you ever heard of “helicopter money?” Well this is an interesting read…
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